Survivorship Bias Or Real Results?

Survivorship bias is an interesting and important concept to understand. The 'survivors' are not the best judge of how good or true a practice is. You really have to look at both the survivors and the casualties to get an idea of how well something works.

If you say, 'We have a great college. there are 100 people in our graduating class this year and 85% of last year's class are gainfully employed.' That only gives part of the picture. How many students enrolled but then dropped out? How many came as healthy happy individuals but are now addicted to drugs and alcohol? How many suffered abuse or died on campus? How much debt was accrued?The brochure isn't going to have those numbers. Those numbers are needed to see if the institution is truly great.

At the same time we understand that all institutions, ideas and philosophies have casualties. That is the way of all human institutions. Good ones have better ratios and pump out very high quality work, people or results.

I saw this yesterday as I was reading John chapter 18 and it really spoke to me about Jesus' leadership.

"So he asked them again, 'Whom do you seek?' And they said, 'Jesus of Nazareth.' Jesus answered, 'I told you that I am he. So, if you seek me, let these men go.' This was to fulfill the word that he had spoken: 'Of those whom you gave me I have lost not one.' " - John 18:7-9 ESV

Jesus did not lose any of his disciples. None of them died before He did. None of them died before He rose from the grave.

"In my Father's house are many rooms. If it were not so, would I have told you that I go to prepare a place for you?" - John 14:2 ESV

He made 'a place' for those who died after He rose into Heaven. He didn't lose any of them. He NEVER loses anyone.

Churches lose people. Leaders fail. Philosophies have flaws. We make mistakes but because we 'survived' we think it was because of something we did. Wow. So many are so wrong about that. Then they teach their faulty programs to others and say, 'Look! That got me where i am now.'

No. Jesus is the one who did it right. He is the only one who has really done it all right.

If you embrace who He Is and what He did for you on the cross then you will become His. He won't lose you. He can't lose you. He has ever lost anyone yet... not really... people do walk away from Him but He never walks away.

"...for he has said, 'I will never leave you nor forsake you.' " - Hebrews 13:5b ESV

Never... no... never.

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